Government policy documents outline in a pivotal moment for Cuba, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that Venezuela’s oil-long a cornerstone of the island's economy-will cease to flow. This drastic move could plunge Cuba into even greater economic hardship and underscores an intensifying geopolitical struggle in the region.

The implications of this decision are significant, not only for the Cuban government but also for the broader geopolitical landscape in the Caribbean and beyond. Venezuela, under Nicolás Maduro's leadership, has been Cuba's principal oil supplier, nurturing a crucial economic relationship for many years. As the U.S. tightens sanctions and pursues a strict oil blockade against Venezuela, the Caribbean nation must navigate this developing crisis carefully to prevent further destabilization.

The Oil Connection

Cuba has heavily relied on Venezuelan oil imports for its energy needs, drawing around 50,000 barrels per day at one time-once a vital lifeline. This relationship has deep historical roots, bolstered by ideological alignment between the two countries. However, recent shifts in U.S. foreign policy, particularly under Trump's administration, have jeopardized this support.

According to shipping data, not a single cargo from Venezuela reached Cuba since the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela in January 2026-an event that dramatically altered the landscape of oil exports in the region.

Trump's Ultimatum

On January 11, 2026, Trump took to his Truth Social platform to declare, "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!" This statement was not merely a personal rant but an actionable directive designed to choke off Cuba's financial resources, thus heightening pressure on its government.

The U.S. administration's intent to halt Venezuela's economic assistance to Cuba suggests a broader strategy aimed at destabilizing the Cuban regime by cutting off critical resources, effectively forcing the Cuban government to reevaluate its alliances.

Cuban Leadership Response

In response to Trump's threats, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel appeared defiant, dismissing any notion of conversations with the U.S. beyond minimal technical discussions related to migration. He emphasized that Cuba would not engage in negotiations rooted in economic coercion or threats.

Díaz-Canel's remarks reflect a commitment to preserving Cuba's sovereignty against external pressures, insisting that any dialogue must be based on mutual respect and non-interference in internal affairs.

Implications for the Region

Cuba's reliance on Venezuelan oil has put it in a precarious position within the geopolitical landscape, especially amid increasing U.S. sanctions. The cessation of oil imports not only threatens Cuba's economic stability but also has ripple effects for the entire Caribbean region, where many economies could face similar vulnerabilities.

As the U.S. navigates a complex relationship with countries in Latin America, the repercussions of these sanctions could redefine alliances, prompting Cuba to seek alternative oil sources, potentially from Russia or other nations, thus further complicating the geopolitical puzzle.

Constraints and tradeoffs

• Venezuela's political instability affects oil supply chains

• U.S. sanctions limit economic flexibility for Cuba

• Future negotiations with the U.S. remain uncertain

Verdict

Trump's declaration marks a critical juncture as Cuba weighs its options amid dwindling oil supplies from Venezuela.

As Cuba grapples with diminishing oil supplies and the looming threat of U.S. sanctions, the decisions made in Havana regarding alliances and economic strategy will be closely scrutinized, not only by neighboring countries but also by global observers keen to understand the shifting dynamics in Latin America.

Key numbers

• 2 billion (mentioned in Cuba defiant after Trump threat to cut off ‘oil and money’ lifeline)

• 50 million (mentioned in Cuba defiant after Trump threat to cut off ‘oil and money’ lifeline)