Gartner Predicts Humanoid Robots Will Struggle to Scale

The promise of humanoid robots is fading faster than the time it takes to boot one up.

Gartner Inc.'s latest report reveals a sobering reality: fewer than 20 companies are expected to deploy humanoid robots at scale by 2028. This figure stands in stark contrast to the nearly 200 companies currently engaged in developing humanoid technologies, illustrating a significant gap between ambition and execution. Despite the hype surrounding humanoids, actual progress beyond proof-of-concept stages remains limited, with most robots confined to tightly controlled environments rather than dynamic, high-throughput operations.

Abdil Tunca, a senior principal analyst at Gartner, emphasizes that while the potential for humanoid robots is compelling, the technology still has a long way to go in terms of versatility and cost-effectiveness. This sentiment echoes the experiences of many in the robotics industry who have watched as ambitious projects either faltered or failed to deliver on their promises. It's a reminder that revolutionary claims often mask the painstaking reality of robotic development.

The report indicates that even though investments in humanoid robotics have surged, the actual deployment of these systems in supply chain and manufacturing contexts will be minimal over the next five years. For many companies, the challenge lies in evaluating the technology's readiness while avoiding the trap of overcommitting resources to solutions that are not yet viable.

Current humanoid offerings, such as Boston Dynamics' Atlas and Tesla's Optimus, exemplify this dichotomy. Atlas, for instance, boasts a staggering 42 degrees of freedom (DOF), allowing it to navigate complex environments with remarkable agility. However, the operational limitations of these robots often become apparent in real-world scenarios. For example, Atlas excels in controlled demonstrations but struggles with the unpredictability of a factory floor, where obstacles and dynamic human interactions can derail even the most sophisticated algorithms.

Moreover, the power source and runtime constraints further complicate matters. While many humanoids rely on battery systems that provide limited operational time—often no more than a few hours—efficient charging solutions remain elusive. For instance, Tesla's Optimus, still in the early stages of development, has yet to establish a reliable runtime specification, leaving potential users in limbo regarding its practical applications.

In light of these challenges, Gartner's projection raises questions about the future of humanoids in the workplace. Will we see a shift from experimental prototypes to reliable production models? The reality is that many humanoid robots still operate at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4 or 5, indicating that they are suitable for lab testing or controlled environments but not yet ready for the rigors of field deployment.

As the industry watches this space, several key factors will influence the trajectory of humanoid robotics. First, companies must prioritize iterative improvements over groundbreaking leaps. The incremental advancements seen in current models will be crucial to overcoming existing limitations. Second, the focus must shift toward developing practical use cases that highlight the unique capabilities of humanoids, rather than merely replicating human tasks.

Ultimately, while the allure of humanoid robots continues to capture the imagination, Gartner's analysis serves as a wake-up call. The industry must reconcile the gap between hype and reality, ensuring that progress is grounded in practical engineering solutions rather than lofty ambitions. For now, the dream of humanoid robots contributing effectively to everyday operations remains just that—a dream, waiting for the innovation and maturity required to bring it to life.